What's driving Latino voters? "The economy, and the economy, and the economy."

Leading Latino governmental strategists are examining the races wherever Latinos could play an outsize relation successful this year's midterm elections, and judge their votes volition beryllium captious successful a fig of House races.

"The House representation particularly is precise Latino," said Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, a governmental information steadfast that specializes successful Latino voters. He went connected to tick disconnected a database of competitory districts crossed the midterm landscape, with a precocious colonisation of Hispanic voters, that could find who wins the bulk successful Congress.

At Tuesday's Latino Vote Summit successful Washington, D.C., Latino governmental strategists, pollsters and run operatives from some sides of the aisle gathered to sermon cost-of-living issues and Latino governmental powerfulness heading into the fall. The backdrop is Latino voters' plaything toward President Trump successful 2024 — and Democrats' efforts to triumph them backmost during a tightly contested contention for power of the House and Senate.

Odio said the high-stakes Senate contention successful Texas betwixt Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton could beryllium heavy influenced by the state's Latino voters, who supported Mr. Trump with a 55% bulk successful the 2024 election, according to CBS News exit polls. Since then, caller polls amusement that galore Texas Hispanics person swung distant from Republicans.

"Texas' map, successful particular, is simply a spot where, wherever Latinos onshore could beryllium the quality betwixt Republicans netting 4 [Senate] seats and Democrats walking distant either adjacent oregon walking distant with 1 Democratic seat," Odio said. 

Roughly 1 successful 4 registered voters successful Texas successful 2024 were Latino, according to data compiled by UnidosUS, the nation's largest Latino civilian rights and advocacy organization. That percent is adjacent higher successful immoderate of the state's astir competitory House districts.

Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla of California noted astatine the lawsuit that the Latino colonisation is besides rapidly increasing successful places similar Georgia, North Carolina and Louisiana — wherever higher elector turnout from that captious electorate could person a important interaction successful frontline legislature races.

"Georgia, the biggest battleground authorities connected the Senate representation close now, much than a cardinal Latinos successful Georgia, that's a astonishment to us," Padilla said, referring to a cardinal Senate battleground contention wherever Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection. "Look astatine North Carolina's increasing Latino population. Look astatine Louisiana, you wouldn't deliberation large numbers, but New Orleans present has a Latina mayor."

"We're everyplace wherever there's work. We're there, and we're increasing successful numbers, and we're increasing successful impact, and if we collectively bash our occupation close and enactment unneurotic connected this, past the governmental interaction of our assemblage volition lone proceed to beryllium louder and stronger, and unit the governmental forces of this nation's superior to wage attraction and to code it," Padilla said. 

With less than 5 months until the elections, the main contented for Latinos continues to beryllium affordability, according to participants from crossed the country, including California and Texas, who spoke to CBS News.

"The economy, and the economy, and the economy," said Odio, erstwhile asked astir the apical contented for Hispanics.

He said recent data suggests Democrats whitethorn beryllium regaining immoderate of the crushed they mislaid with Latino voters implicit the past respective predetermination cycles, though he's not definite however much.

Several experts said economical anxiousness is driving Hispanic elector engagement successful overmuch the aforesaid mode it did successful 2018, erstwhile Democrats benefited from a "blue wave" predetermination and gained much than 40 seats successful the House.

By comparison, successful 2022, Republicans picked up a fistful of seats and narrowly won power of the House, and though Democrats staved disconnected a large-scale GOP wave, Latino voters trended distant from Democrats that year. By 2024, astir fractional of Hispanics voted for Mr. Trump, including a bulk of Hispanic men, according to exit polling data.

"It does suggest that you're headed not rather to 2018, but it's getting person to that vicinity," Odio said of engagement by Latino voters. "That means Democrats should retrieve a batch of the enactment they've lost. But whether they extremity up person to a 2022 script oregon a 2018 script is truly important, due to the fact that a batch of elections volition beryllium decided by the quality betwixt those 2 margins." 

Latino voters proceed to presumption economical conditions, similar inflation, arsenic their apical interest — and Mr. Trump's ratings connected his handling of the system are weaker than they were astatine astir the aforesaid constituent successful 2018, Odio said. 

But Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who won his competitory Senate contention successful a battleground authorities that Mr. Trump won, said Hispanic voters cannot beryllium taken for granted by the Democratic Party.

"The Democratic Party inactive does not recognize that determination is nary nationalist Democratic Party without the Latino ballot being portion of that coalition, and portion of that is that you person to reply to wherever the Latino elector is, not wherever you privation the Latino elector to be," Gallego said. 

"There has been this privation by special, precise wide organizations and precise wide donors and precise wide groups that they privation Latinos to beryllium liberal, and the information is not each of them are," Gallego said. 

Looking beyond the midterms to 2028, Gallego fielded a question astir imaginable GOP statesmanlike contenders.

"If Marco Rubio is the nominee to beryllium president of the United States, we're successful trouble," helium said, referring to Mr. Trump's Cuban American caput of state. "You're playing with a batch little territory if Rubio is connected the ticket, not due to the fact that his policies are going to beryllium large — we're going to deed him connected everything we tin — obviously, astir however atrocious helium is connected that — but determination is immoderate elector retired determination without a uncertainty that's conscionable going to beryllium excited astir having the archetypal Latino campaigner moving for president connected a large ticket."  

Mike Madrid, a Republican governmental advisor with an expertise successful Hispanic voting trends and behavior, agrees with Gallego. 

"The Republican Party is overmuch stronger with Latinos than radical realize," Madrid, who has been a professional of the Trump administration, told CBS News. "Having idiosyncratic similar Marco Rubio, I think, is simply a immense asset, immense vantage for the Republicans." 

Madrid added that if Republicans execute poorly successful states with ample Latino populations similar Georgia oregon North Carolina successful the upcoming midterms, a Latino campaigner successful 2028 could support much states successful play. 

"I deliberation erstwhile they suffer the House and perchance the Senate, [Republicans] are going to beryllium looking astatine the 270 representation and saying, 'who tin triumph this,'" Madrid said. "Having a Latino campaigner is going to bring those backmost into contention and I deliberation Marco Rubio emerges arsenic 1 of their champion advantages, and to perceive Senator Gallego admit that says something." 

Joe Walsh contributed to this report.