Trump and Musk Amplify Long-Ago Debunked Mail-In Vote Fraud Claim

A societal media station cited by Elon Musk to bolster his statement that mail-in voting should beryllium curtailed, and which was subsequently amplified by President Donald Trump, makes the mendacious and long-ago debunked assertion that successful the 2020 election, “Pennsylvania sent retired 1,823,148 mail-in ballots but received backmost astir 2.5 MILLION mail-in ballots.”

As the Pennsylvania Department of State’s last report connected the 2020 predetermination shows, determination were 2,673,272 mail-in ballot applications approved for the 2020 wide election, truthful that’s however galore were sent out. And of those, 2,273,490 votes were cast. (See charts 6.2 and 6.3 successful the report.) Another 435,932 absentee ballots were besides approved, and 374,659 of them were cast.

“This assertion is based connected mixing up statistic from the superior and the wide election,” Charles Stewart III, manager of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, explained to america via email.

As online Pennsylvania records show, determination were astir 1.8 cardinal absentee and mail-in ballots approved for the primary predetermination successful 2020, astir 1.5 cardinal of which were cast. In different words, the station mixes up the fig of mail-in ballots (including absentee ballots) sent retired for the 2020 primary predetermination and past cites astir the fig of mail-in ballots formed successful the 2020 general election.

“These are long-ago debunked claims that volition not vanish contempt the availability of authoritative data,” Stewart said.

The Posts

Trump has been making false and unfounded claims related to mail-in voting for years. And helium has agelong called for ending mail-in voting “other than if you’re successful the military, oregon you’re sick, oregon you’re away, oregon immoderate tenable but bully excuse,” arsenic helium said connected Feb. 9.

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Musk, a erstwhile Trump adviser, agrees, according to a Feb. 8 post from an X relationship called The Leading Report: “Elon Musk calls for mail-in voting to beryllium abolished nationwide but for troops overseas oregon a superior aesculapian condition.” Musk reposted it and commented, “Critical to debar fraud.”

The aforesaid day, The SCIF — an X relationship whose bio identifies the relation arsenic a “Digital Operator, Creator and Intelligence Researcher” with the motto, “Truth is the astir effectual limb successful a warfare of accusation filled with lies” — weighed successful with an X post that read: “Elon is right, banning mail-in voting is captious to avoiding fraud successful our elections. During the 2020 election, Pennsylvania sent retired 1,823,148 mail-in ballots but received backmost astir 2.5 MILLION mail-in ballots. This accounts for Biden’s fraudulent and intolerable 682,000+ ballot spike, which were counted with NO observers and were each for Biden, which magically conscionable happened to beryllium capable to bargain Trump’s astir 700,000 ballot pb successful PA earlier plaything states unopen down counting locations astatine the aforesaid time, to bargain the 2020 election. PA’s ain Secretary of State website past wiped the 2.5 MILLION mail-in ballot fig aft the full fig was questioned. Trump won the 2020 predetermination successful a landslide.”

Musk reposted that, and commented, “Essential to halt fraud successful elections.” On Feb. 10, Trump reposted the assertion and Musk’s effect connected Truth Social, without comment.

This latest disapproval of mail-in voting comes arsenic Congress considers the SAVE America Act, which would necessitate voters to supply documentary impervious of U.S. citizenship erstwhile registering to vote, and besides photograph recognition to ballot successful national elections. It would not abolish mail-in voting, but it would necessitate a transcript of recognition to some petition and taxable a mail-in ballot.

Mail-in voting is wide utilized astir the country. Eight states and Washington, D.C., behaviour their elections mostly by mail, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Another 28 states — including Pennsylvania — connection “no excuse” mail-in voting, meaning that immoderate elector tin petition a mail-in ballot without needing to supply a reason. (Pennsylvania has some no-excuse mail-in ballots arsenic good arsenic absentee ballots for those who can’t marque it to a polling spot owed to illness, disability, enactment oregon travel.)

The Origins

The station claiming determination were hundreds of thousands much mail-in ballots received than were really sent retired successful Pennsylvania — a plaything authorities that broke for Biden successful 2020 — originated successful a Nov. 25, 2020, hearing held by Pennsylvania Senate Republicans (a video of which is attached to the post). During that hearing, then-Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani referred to Pennsylvania voting information and said, “Now this is the portion that is simply a mystery. Mailed ballots sent out: 1,823,148. But erstwhile you spell to the number of the last number of the vote, determination are 2,589,242 mail-in ballots.” Giuliani asked witnesser Phil Waldron, a retired Army colonel, “How bash you relationship for the 700,000 mail-in ballots that appeared from nowhere?”

Waldron, who has promoted galore unfounded theories astir manipulated voting machines, speculated the voting machines whitethorn person been tampered with and called for a “detailed forensic analysis” of the voting machines utilized successful Pennsylvania.

(Waldron aboriginal circulated a PowerPoint papers to Trump allies that drew the attraction of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, onslaught connected the Capitol. At the time, Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson, seat of the panel, called the papers “an alarming blueprint for overturning a nationwide election.” According to the Jan. 6 committee report, Waldron was among those who “invoked their Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination erstwhile asked by the Select Committee what expected impervious they uncovered that the predetermination was stolen.”)

But again, the premise of Giuliani’s question was flawed. There were not much ballots returned successful Pennsylvania than had been sent out.

“This is wholly false,” Kathy Boockvar, who was the Pennsylvania caput of the commonwealth astatine the clip of the 2020 election, said successful an email to america astir the online claim. She explained the aforesaid happening astatine the clip successful a Dec. 16, 2020, letter to U.S. Sens. Ron Johnson and Gary Peters astir akin claims.

All of the predetermination information are, and were, successful nationalist records disposable online, and they contradict Giuliani’s claim.

The assertion is besides contradicted by the contemporaneous reporting made to the U.S. Elections Project, a clearinghouse for voting information maintained by Mike McDonald, a prof astatine the University of Florida.

“The individual-level Pennsylvania 2020 message ballot information I received connected a regular ground from the Secretary of State’s bureau does not substantiate these allegations,” McDonald told america via email. “Pennsylvania predetermination officials reported issuing a small implicit 3 cardinal message ballots during the COVID crisis, of which predetermination officials accepted a small much than 2.6 cardinal returned ballots.” Those figures see some mail-in and absentee ballots.

And the assertion is further contradicted by quality accounts before the predetermination that cited the close fig of ballot requests for the wide election.

Indeed, the bogus assertion was widely debunked astatine the time.

“It’s beauteous unbelievable this is inactive being used,” Eric Kraeutler, a subordinate of the committee of directors and erstwhile seat of the Committee of Seventy, a Philadelphia-based predetermination watchdog, told america successful a telephone interview. “They mixed up information for these 2 abstracted elections (the 2020 superior and wide elections). … As acold arsenic we’re concerned, this was disposed of 5 oregon six years ago.”

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