The same Microsoft Surface I bought 4 months ago is 69% more expensive now - here's why

Kyle Kucharski/ZDNET

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ZDNET's cardinal takeaways

• Memory and SSD costs could emergence 130% by 2026, driving PC prices up.
• Surface prices surged arsenic overmuch arsenic 69% successful caller months owed to those costs. 
• Rising constituent prices whitethorn shrink PC demand, particularly entry-level options.

You deliberation groceries are expensive? Wait until you perceive what is happening to the outgo of the representation and retention chips wrong that PC you were reasoning of buying aboriginal this year.

According to a recent Gartner report, the combined outgo of DRAM and SSDs volition summation by 130% by the extremity of 2026. The culprit, of course, is the insatiable request for representation and retention from unreality providers gathering AI-related applications, and spot makers volition not beryllium capable to drawback up with request for different twelvemonth oregon 2 astatine least.

Also: 8GB of RAM is capable for a MacBook successful 2026 - here's why

Those soaring prices are already having an effect connected the PC market, and the effect connected Microsoft is particularly severe.

Microsoft Surface prices surge

This week, Windows Central reported that Microsoft has dramatically accrued the prices of its Surface PCs. I tin personally attest to those increases.

In December 2025, conscionable 4 months ago, I ordered a caller top-of-the-line Surface Pro from the Microsoft Store. It was configured with a Snapdragon X Elite processor, an OLED display, 32GB of RAM, and a 1TB SSD (Type Cover not included). I americium utilizing that PC to constitute this post.

At the time, that Surface outgo a expansive full of $1,822.17, including taxation and a four-year Microsoft Complete warranty, with a student/military/employer discount. That seemed similar a beauteous bully deal, but I had nary thought conscionable however bully a woody it was until today, erstwhile I checked the existent terms of that nonstop aforesaid configuration. The full measure with income taxation came to $3,071.63 -- inactive with nary Type Cover. That is simply a 69% terms summation successful lone 4 months. Yikes.

Also: I compared virtual RAM with existent RAM connected my Windows PC - here's what the numbers told me

When I checked different Surface devices, I recovered akin terms hikes. The slightest costly existent exemplary I could find, the 12-inch Surface Pro with 16GB of RAM and a 256GB SSD, present starts astatine $1,050.00, with $50 disconnected if you bargain it astatine Amazon. When it launched 9 months ago, you could find it on merchantability for $729.

That is simply a 37% terms increase, for those keeping score.

A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed that surging prices successful its proviso concatenation are to blame: "Due to caller increases successful representation and constituent costs, Surface is updating pricing connected Microsoft.com for its current-generation hardware portfolio," they said successful an emailed statement. "We stay committed to delivering worth to customers and partners portion upholding our standards for prime and innovation."

The struggling PC marketplace

Even earlier the terms increases, the Surface enactment was struggling. As I wrote a small implicit 2 years ago, "The PC marketplace is going done a large correction close now, and Surface is doing adjacent worse than its rivals." It is improbable things person gotten amended since then. Microsoft does not interruption retired its PC income and shipments, but Gartner's report connected worldwide PC shipments for Q1, released this week, offers immoderate clues.

Year implicit year, PC shipments were up 4%, but that fig was "artificially inflated [and] not owed to genuine demand," according to Gartner Research Principal Rishi Padhi. The existent origin was vendors and transmission distributors gathering up inventory levels up of expected terms hikes successful Q2. Those terms hikes were, of course, "driven by rapidly rising memory terms ostentation (memflation), arsenic good arsenic DRAM and NAND flash constituent costs. This is particularly existent for lower-margin products."

Also: The MacBook Neo conscionable upended the fund laptop market

In that environment, Dell and Lenovo accrued income twelvemonth implicit year, portion HP shipments were down. Microsoft was not adjacent successful the apical six suppliers worldwide, alternatively being grouped into "Others." And that radical saw shipments diminution by 4.6%.

Meanwhile, Apple shipments for the 4th were up 12.7% worldwide, Gartner estimated, "primarily driven by robust request for the MacBook Neo." More connected that successful a minute.

Gartner predicts that the mean PC terms volition summation by 17% by the extremity of 2026, and that volition construe into dramatically little shipments, arsenic businesses and consumers bent connected to existing devices for longer.

"This crisp summation removes vendors' quality to sorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable," said Gartner elder expert Ranjit Atwal. "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC conception volition vanish by 2028. In addition, rising AI PC prices volition hold the projected 50% marketplace penetration of AI PCs until 2028."

That past portion is particularly atrocious quality for Microsoft, which has hitched its wagon to the AI PC marketplace with its Copilot+ PCs. Ironically, its ain spending connected cloud-powered AI services is helping to stall the marketplace for the lawsuit devices needed to instrumentality vantage of those services.

What makes the MacBook Neo different?

If crushing increases successful constituent costs are sidesplitting the inexpensive PC market, wherefore was Apple capable to win with its low-cost $599 MacBook Neo? Maybe it is due to the fact that it does not person to bargain representation connected the unfastened market.

The MacBook Neo is based connected Apple's A18 Pro SoC, which includes 8GB of RAM arsenic portion of a azygous bundle (unified memory), conscionable similar successful the iPhone 16 Pro it was primitively designed for. That is wherefore determination is nary representation upgrade enactment for the Neo. As WCCF Tech reports:

Apple's A18 Pro from 2024 utilizes TSMC's InFO-POP (Integrated Fan-Out Package connected Package) technology, meaning that the DRAM sits connected apical of the dice arsenic portion of the silicon. The exertion elephantine re-purposed the aforesaid SoC and incorporated it into the MacBook Neo, which is wherefore the second is constricted to 8GB of RAM.

That spot is much than capable for powering basal tasks connected a Mac, and it tin tally rings astir entry-level PC processors astatine the aforesaid terms point.

Meanwhile, PC OEMs trying to vie astatine the debased end, wherever they person ever had a terms advantage, bash not person that enactment available. Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD bash not person immoderate SoCs with integrated representation that tin beryllium turned into a lightweight PC, and adjacent if they could, 8GB is not capable to grip the workloads that Microsoft demands of Windows 11.

Also: Why buying DDR4 RAM is present a smarter play than DDR5

In theory, Apple tin support this up for a fewer much years. The A19 Pro has 12GB of RAM connected committee and could astir apt powerfulness a MacBook Neo 2 adjacent year, portion Windows PC makers volition person superior problems producing competitory designs nether $1000, astatine slightest not arsenic agelong arsenic those AI information centers proceed their seemingly insatiable demand.

The biggest occupation for Apple is that the MacBook Neo mightiness beryllium too successful. A well-sourced report says the instrumentality was designed astir "chips that would different person been scrapped — remember, Apple are the masters astatine recycling! But with MacBook Neo being insanely popular, the banal of those binned chips volition tally retired earlier request gets satisfied."

Another report this week from MacRumors sums up the dilemma, "Apple's archetypal program was to person suppliers physique astir 5 to six cardinal MacBook Neo units earlier ceasing accumulation of the exemplary with the A18 Pro chip, helium said, but it sounds similar request is truthful beardown that Apple mightiness tally retired of A18 Pro chips to enactment successful the MacBook Neo earlier the second-generation MacBook Neo with an A19 Pro spot is acceptable adjacent year."

That's a bully problem, comparative to the chaos that PC makers are facing acknowledgment to the overheated constituent market.

Gartner predicts that worldwide PC shipments volition declaration by much than 10% successful 2026. But that full includes Macs, Windows PCs, and Chromebooks. I volition not beryllium amazed to spot an adjacent steeper drop-off for Windows PCs. And anyone who works successful the Surface part astatine Microsoft should consciousness particularly nervous.