NOAA launches 3 new AI-driven global forecasting models

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is launching 3 caller AI-driven planetary upwind prediction models designed to importantly beforehand forecast speed, ratio and accuracy.

These caller forecasting models, called the Artificial Intelligence Global Forecast System (AIGFS), the Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System (AIGEFS) and the Hyrbrid-GEFS (HGEFS), were introduced connected Wednesday.

"The models volition supply forecasters with faster transportation of much close guidance, portion utilizing a fraction of computational resources," NOAA said successful a quality release.

This AIGFS forecast successful the signifier of a map, for December 10, 2025, shows the dense precipitation from an atmospheric stream hitting the U.S. Pacific Northwest.

(NOAA National Weather Service / NOAA)

NOAA said the AIGFS implements AI to present improved upwind forecasts much rapidly and efficiently than the accepted GFS forecast model.

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The AIGEFS is an AI-based ensemble strategy that provides a scope of imaginable forecast outcomes to meteorologists and decision-makers, NOAA said. 

The bureau said aboriginal results from the AIGEFS amusement improved show implicit the accepted GEFS by extending forecast accomplishment by an further 18 to 24 hours.

NOAA said the HGEFS is simply a hybrid "grand ensemble" that combines the AIGEFS and NOAA's GEFS, forming a "first-of-its benignant attack for an operational upwind center." Initial investigating shows the HGEFS consistently outperforms some the AI-only AIGEFS and the physics-only GEFS.

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"NOAA’s strategical exertion of AI is simply a important leap guardant successful American upwind exemplary innovation," NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said. "These AI models bespeak a caller paradigm for NOAA successful providing improved accuracy for large-scale upwind and tropical tracks, and faster transportation of forecast products to meteorologists and the nationalist astatine a little outgo done drastically reduced computational expenses."

The bureau said this archetypal suite of AI models is portion of Project EAGLE, a associated inaugural betwixt NOAA's National Weather Service, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Labs, the Environmental Modeling Center successful NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center.

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"Using Project EAGLE and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, NOAA scientists proceed to enactment with members of academia and backstage manufacture connected much advancements successful forecasting technology," Jacobs said.

To larn much astir the caller AI-based forecasting models, sojourn NOAA's website here.