FactChecking Trump’s Rapid-Fire Prime-Time Address

President Donald Trump blitzed done a prime-time code to the federation connected Dec. 17, but portion short, Trump’s code contained a fig of inaccurate oregon misleading claims, galore of which helium has repeated successful nationalist speeches for months.

• Trump mentioned respective items, specified arsenic cars and level tickets, that helium said experienced terms increases nether erstwhile President Joe Biden and terms decreases during Trump’s ain presidency. We recovered enactment for immoderate of Trump’s statistic but not others, specified arsenic the terms of Thanksgiving turkeys.

• The president made the misleading assertion that “for the archetypal clip successful years, wages are rising overmuch faster than inflation.” Year-over-year wages person been rising faster than ostentation since June 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.

• Trump falsely claimed that ostentation erstwhile helium took bureau was the “worst … successful the past of our country” and that ostentation had present “stopped.” Inflation was ne'er the “worst” nether Biden, and it was 3% for the 12 months ending successful January. It roseate 2.7% successful the 12-month play ending successful November.

• He said, “Gasoline is present nether $2.50 a gallon, and successful overmuch of the country, successful immoderate states, it by the mode conscionable deed $1.99 a gallon.” The nationalist mean terms was $2.90 a gallon the week of Dec. 15, and the lowest statewide mean was $2.34 successful Oklahoma.

• Trump claimed that owed to the taxation cuts successful the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, “many families volition beryllium redeeming betwixt $11,000 and $20,000 a year.” The Tax Policy Center estimated the mean taxation chopped would beryllium $800. Only those successful the apical 1% of households would spot an mean taxation alteration of the magnitude Trump claimed.

• Speaking astir immigrants, Trump’s estimation that the U.S. was “invaded by an service of 25 cardinal people” is vastly inflated; his assertion that galore of them came from “prisons and jails and intelligence institutions and insane asylums” is unsupported, and his assertion that the Biden medication allowed successful “11,888 murderers” is wrong.

• The president made the mathematically intolerable assertion that helium was capable “to slash prices connected drugs and pharmaceuticals by arsenic overmuch arsenic 400, 500 and adjacent 600%.”

In his prime-time address, Trump spoke quickly, astatine twice the rate of his State of the Union code pace, according to a PBS News correspondent. The absorption was chiefly connected the system and “affordability.”

Prices

The president blamed his predecessor for “driving up prices and everything astatine levels ne'er seen before,” but Trump said helium is “bringing those precocious prices down and bringing them down precise fast.”

“Under the Biden administration,” he said, “car prices roseate 22%,” “gasoline roseate 30 to 50%,” “hotel rates roseate 37%,” and “airfares roseate 31%.” He continued, “Now nether our leadership, they’re each coming down and coming down fast.” He went connected to accidental that “Democrat politicians besides sent the outgo of groceries soaring, but we are solving that too.” He added that “the terms of a Thanksgiving turkey was down 33% compared to the Biden past year,” and claimed that “the terms of eggs is down 82% since March.”

We recovered enactment for immoderate of his figures, but nary for others.

The White House told america that the terms information for cars, hotels, airfares and gasoline came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but was not much specific. We checked the bureau’s Consumer Price Index data, the seasonally adjusted numbers, which did amusement terms increases nether Biden and mostly terms decreases truthful acold nether Trump.

The CPI for caller vehicles accrued astir 19% during Biden’s four-year word but has accrued lone slightly, by 0.2%, nether Trump from January to November, according to the astir caller BLS figures. Meanwhile, the CPI for hose fares went up astir 32% nether Biden and has declined much than 9% nether Trump. Also, the CPI for lodging distant from home, including hotels and motels, roseate implicit 33% nether Biden and has dropped astir 5% nether Trump. Lastly, the CPI for gasoline, including each types, grew by 34.5% nether Biden and has decreased astir 4.6% nether Trump.

The BLS besides publishes mean monthly terms information for unleaded, regular gas and the astir caller numbers, which are not seasonally adjusted, amusement an summation of 38% nether Biden (from astir $2.33 to $3.21) and a overmuch smaller increase, astir 0.6%, nether Trump (from $3.21 to astir $3.23). But those figures are antithetic from the most caller play data published by the Energy Information Administration that amusement the mean terms of regular people state rising astir 31% nether Biden (from $2.38 to $3.11 per gallon) and declining astir 7% nether Trump (from $3.11 to $2.90, arsenic of Dec. 15).

The root of Trump’s assertion that turkey prices were down 33% for Thanksgiving is adjacent little clear, arsenic the White House provided nary denotation wherever the president got his figure. In a Nov. 19 news release, the American Farm Bureau Federation said that the mean terms of a 16-pound frozen turkey was down from the erstwhile year, but lone by 16%. The nonprofit advocacy radical attributed the terms diminution to market stores offering peculiar Thanksgiving deals, “attempting to gully user request backmost to turkey, starring to little retail prices for a vacation bird.” The wholesale prices that retailers paid for caller turkeys were up from the twelvemonth prior, the American Farm Bureau Federation said.

As for eggs, arsenic of November, the mean retail terms for a twelve people A achromatic eggs was $2.86, down astir 42% from $4.95 successful January, according to the latest BLS data. Trump was apt referring to wholesale ovum prices arsenic of Dec. 12 being down 82% from the precocious of $8.17 successful March, but wholesale prices are not what consumers wage astatine market stores. Egg prices spiked successful 2024 aft an avian influenza outbreak led to an ovum shortage. When vertebrate flu cases began to decline, truthful did wholesale ovum prices, which yet led to little retail prices.

Overall, market prices, according to the CPI for “food-at-home items,” were up astir 1.17% from January to November, and up astir 1.9% since November 2024.

Wages

“Real,” meaning inflation-adjusted, wages person gone up since Trump took bureau successful January, and they went down implicit the entirety of Biden’s tenure. But Trump made the misleading assertion that “for the archetypal clip successful years, wages are rising overmuch faster than inflation.”

Year-over-year wages person been rising faster than ostentation since June 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.

As we’ve written before, the average play earnings of each private-sector workers roseate 16.7% implicit Biden’s 4 years, but ostentation accrued by more. “Real” weekly earnings fell 4%; for rank-and-file production and nonsupervisory workers, the diminution was 2%. Inflation deed wage gains the hardest successful the archetypal fractional of Biden’s presidency, peculiarly successful calendar twelvemonth 2022. For the 12 months ending January 2025, Biden’s past twelvemonth successful office, existent mean play net went up 0.6%.

Under Trump, since January, those existent mean net person risen faster; they’re up 1.6%.

“It remains the lawsuit that some astatine the process extremity of the Biden medication and the opening of this Trump administration, existent wages person been rising. That is to say, ostentation has been rising much dilatory than wages person been,” Gary Burtless, a elder chap emeritus successful economical studies astatine the Brookings Institution, told america successful a telephone interview. Burtless said that his speechmaking of assorted wage measures is that “the changes person not been terribly abrupt from the turnover of the Biden medication to the Trump administration.”

Trump referred to a existent wage nonaccomplishment nether Biden and wage gains successful definite industries since January. A White House spokesperson told america that specified figures notation to “annualized growth” utilizing BLS existent wage data, but we were incapable to replicate the figures. For the industries Trump mentioned, since January, existent mean play net for the manufacturing and construction industries person some gone up 1.7%; mining and logging saw a 1% increase.

Inflation

At the apical of his remarks, Trump said, “11 months ago, I inherited a messiness and I’m fixing it. When I took office, ostentation was the worst successful 48 years and immoderate would accidental successful the past of our country.” He aboriginal said, “inflation is stopped.”

Inflation wasn’t “the worst … successful the past of our country” erstwhile Trump returned to the White House successful January. As we antecedently wrote, during Biden’s word determination was a 9.1% summation successful the Consumer Price Index successful the 12 months ending successful June 2022, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics said was the biggest summation successful implicit 40 years. But yearly ostentation maturation moderated to just beneath 3% successful the past six months of 2024. The U.S. suffered its worst inflation summation year-to-year pursuing World War I, erstwhile determination was a 23.7% emergence from June 1919 to June 1920, and it was higher than the highest of Biden’s word during different periods of U.S. history. 

Inflation hasn’t “stopped,” arsenic Trump besides claimed. The BLS reported connected Dec. 18, the greeting aft Trump’s speech, that the CPI rose 2.7% implicit the 12-month play ending successful November. (BLS didn’t cod data for October during the authorities shutdown, and didn’t commencement collecting November’s information until the 14th of that month.)

Gasoline

Returning to 1 of his favourite measures of economical success, Trump claimed, “Gasoline is present nether $2.50 a gallon, and successful overmuch of the country, successful immoderate states, it by the mode conscionable deed $1.99 a gallon.” Retail gasoline prices are little than the nationalist mean of $3.11 for a gallon of regular gasoline erstwhile Trump took office, as we’ve written. But Trump exaggerated the mean terms now. It was $2.90 a gallon the week of Dec. 15, according to the Energy Information Administration.

He besides exaggerated erstwhile helium said “in immoderate states” the terms “just deed $1.99 a gallon.” According to data published by AAA, determination were nary states wherever the mean terms was $1.99 a gallon arsenic of Dec. 18. The lowest statewide average was $2.34 successful Oklahoma. (We found some individual stations successful immoderate states selling gasoline for $1.99 oregon little utilizing GasBuddy, a tract that provides accusation astir prices astatine much than 150,000 stations.)

OBBBA Tax Cuts

Trump called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act helium signed successful July “perhaps the astir sweeping authorities ever passed successful Congress” and touted provisions that see “no taxation connected tips, nary taxation connected overtime and nary taxation connected Social Security for our large seniors.” (As we person said, less seniors would wage taxes connected Social Security benefits, but millions of Americans would inactive person to pay.)

Trump claimed that due to the fact that of the taxation cuts successful the law, “many families volition beryllium redeeming betwixt $11,000 and $20,000 a year, and adjacent outpouring is projected to beryllium the largest taxation refund play of each time.” An analysis by the Tax Policy Center recovered that the mean 2025 taxation chopped from the authorities is $800.

“I don’t cognize what Trump means by ‘many’ but the lone income radical that gets an mean taxation chopped that exceeds adjacent $9k are those successful the apical 1 percent, who marque $1.1 cardinal a twelvemonth oregon more,” Howard Gleckman, a nonresident chap astatine the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, told america via email.

When the White House’s ain Council of Economic Advisers analyzed a Senate-proposed mentation of the measure successful June, it estimated that wrong 4 years, the imaginable summation successful take-home wage for a emblematic household with 2 children would beryllium betwixt $7,600 and $10,900. But arsenic we wrote then, the CEA estimation was based connected an presumption that real, oregon inflation-adjusted, gross home merchandise would summation by much than 4% each year, astatine slightest for the archetypal 4 years nether the bill. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget labeled those “fantasy maturation assumptions” that “are galore times higher” than the estimates of different autarkic analysts that person modeled versions of the bill.

Immigrants

Trump repeated respective inflated, unsupported oregon misleading claims astir immigrants who came to the U.S. during Biden’s presidency.

“Our borderline was unfastened and due to the fact that of this, our state was being invaded by an service of 25 cardinal people, galore who came from prisons and jails and intelligence institutions and insane asylums,” Trump said. “They were cause dealers, pack members, and adjacent 11,888 murderers, much than 50% of whom killed much than 1 person. This is what the Biden medication allowed to hap to our state and it tin ne'er beryllium allowed to hap again.”

Trump’s estimation of 25 cardinal unauthorized immigrants coming into the U.S. during Biden’s presidency is acold excessively high. We calculated successful June 2024 that the fig would beryllium astir a 3rd of that, including an estimated 2 cardinal “gotaways” who evaded seizure by Border Patrol and astir 3 cardinal radical released with notices to look successful migration tribunal oregon study to Immigration and Customs Enforcement successful the future, oregon different classifications, specified arsenic parole.

The Pew Research Center estimates that arsenic of 2023 determination were 14 cardinal “unauthorized immigrants” residing successful the U.S. successful total, which includes those with immoderate extortion from deportation, specified arsenic parole oregon having applied for asylum. That’s astir 4 cardinal much than the 10.2 cardinal estimation from the Pew Research Center for 2019.

Trump besides repeated — arsenic helium does successful virtually each code — his unsupported assertion that galore of the immigrants who came to the U.S. during the Biden medication were released from “prisons and jails and intelligence institutions and insane asylums.” Trump has never provided immoderate credible grounds of that.

Finally, Trump’s assertion that “11,888 murderers” were “allowed” into the state during the Biden medication is misleading. As we person written, determination were astir that galore noncitizens who had been convicted of execution but were not successful ICE custody arsenic of September 2024 — a database known arsenic the agency’s non-detained docket.

But the “vast majority” of them entered the state anterior to the Biden medication and had their custody presumption determined “long earlier this Administration,” the Department of Homeland Security told america successful September 2024, noting that galore were successful prison. Also, the noncitizens see those who entered the state legally, specified arsenic green-card holders. Some of them whitethorn besides person been deported. We don’t cognize the root of Trump’s assertion that “more than 50%” oregon those connected the database “killed much than 1 person.”

Drug Prices

Trump made the mathematically intolerable assertion that helium was capable “to slash prices connected drugs and pharmaceuticals by arsenic overmuch arsenic 400, 500 and adjacent 600%,” by negotiating “with the cause companies and overseas nations, which were taking vantage of our state for galore decades.” Of course, specified reductions would suggest that cause companies were paying consumers to instrumentality their products, alternatively of the different mode around.

In a May property league connected cause prices, Trump made comparisons akin to his 400% to 600% price-drop claims. Then, Trump cherry-picked successful saying that cause prices were higher successful the U.S. than successful different countries sometimes by “a origin of five, six, seven, 8 times. … There are adjacent cases of 10 times higher.”

Andrew W. Mulcahy, a elder wellness economist astatine RAND, a planetary argumentation probe enactment based successful California, told america astatine the clip that it was “broadly correct” to accidental the U.S. has higher cause prices than different countries, and “you tin find examples of 5, 6, 7 oregon 8 times, oregon more, higher” for idiosyncratic drugs. But connected average, prices successful the U.S. were 2.78 times higher compared with 33 different Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, according to a RAND report based connected 2022 data. The mean terms was 4.22 times higher for brand-name drugs, which relationship for 10% of the prescriptions filled successful the U.S.

Other Repeats

Eight ‘settled’ wars. As helium often does, Trump claimed to person “settled 8 wars successful 10 months.” As we person written, planetary relations experts said the president has had a important relation successful ending warring successful 5 conflicts, though officials successful 1 state (India) refute Trump’s claim. But immoderate of the planetary disagreements Trump cites person not been wars, and immoderate clashes person not ended.

Housing. Touting his lodging betterment plans and criticizing Biden’s migration policies, Trump besides said, “A large origin successful driving up lodging costs was the colossal borderline invasion.” Vice President JD Vance made a akin misleading claim about the origin of lodging prices rising during Biden’s term, as we’ve written. Immigration does impact lodging prices by expanding demand, but economists told america the main causes of higher prices successful caller years were debased owe involvement rates that fueled demand, a consequent emergence successful involvement rates, and a debased lodging proviso dating to the Great Recession in 2007 to 2009. Immigrants successful the state illegally are much apt to rent than buy, experts besides said.

Electricity. The president said, “Electricity costs surged 30 to 100% nether Biden. … On Day One, I declared a nationalist vigor emergency.” The outgo of energy did summation by 30% — not 100% — during Biden’s presidency, according to the CPI for electricity. But the outgo of energy continued to tick up nether Trump from January to November, rising 6.8%, the BLS information show.

Jobs. Trump again made the assertion that “there are much radical moving contiguous than astatine immoderate clip successful American history.” It’s correct, but it doesn’t mean much, as we’ve written. The BLS reported determination were astir 160 cardinal full nonfarm employees as of November, the highest fig of workers successful history. But the U.S. besides has its largest population in history.

“In November, some the labour unit information complaint (62.5 percent) and the employment-population ratio (59.6 percent) were small changed from September. These measures showed small oregon nary alteration implicit the year,” the BLS reported connected Dec. 16. (The labor unit information rate is the percent of the full colonisation implicit property 16 that is either employed oregon actively seeking work.)

Investments. In his prime-time address, Trump said, “Already, I’ve secured a grounds breaking $18 trillion of concern into the United States” done his tariffs policy. But a White House webpage that purportedly tabulates “Total U.S. and Foreign Investments” made since Trump returned to bureau reports astir fractional that, $9.6 trillion, taken successful truthful far.

Experts accidental that adjacent that fig is questionable due to the fact that it includes pledges and planned investments that whitethorn not travel to fruition.“[T]hey’re just promises — and often vague ones astatine that,” Scott Lincicome, vice president of wide economics astatine the libertarian Cato Institute, said successful an April analysis of Trump’s concern claims.

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