El Niño could suppress 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as major climate pattern forecast to arrive by summer

The meaning of El Nino and La Nina

The presumption of whether the satellite is being impacted by an El Nino oregon a La Nina is determined by h2o temperatures successful the cardinal and eastbound Pacific. (NOAA)

MIAMI – The latest climate forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that an El Niño clime signifier is connected way to get midway done hurricane play — a signifier that has historically suppressed hurricane and different tropical improvement successful the Atlantic Ocean.

WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?

FILE - This outer representation shows Hurricane Melissa southbound of Jamaica connected Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025.

(NOAA)

El Niño is 1 of 3 climatological phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that picture earthy changes successful Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation that tin greatly power planetary weather.

El Niño describes warmer conditions, portion La Niña describes colder conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a authorities wherever temperatures are adjacent to average.

Throughout the winter, conditions remained successful a La Niña state, arsenic the eastbound U.S. saw rounds of Arctic aerial plunge temperatures, fueling an progressive agelong of winter storms that brought the astir snowfall that galore places successful the Northeast person seen successful caller years.

LA NIÑA AND QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION SUGGEST COLD START TO DECEMBER

According to NOAA, the ENSO has begun the modulation toward a neutral state, with signals that El Niño volition get conscionable successful clip for this Atlantic hurricane play — timing that's connected way with past year's long-range forecasts. 

Typically, winds associated with El Niño often interfere with tropical improvement successful the Atlantic. 

NOAA: LA NIÑA EXPECTED FOR BEGINNING OF WINTER, NEUTRAL CONDITIONS LIKELY IN 2026
 

"The warmer waters and enhanced rising aerial crossed the Pacific make "hostile" upper-level winds that stroke crossed the Caribbean and the Main Development Region (MDR)," the FOX Forecast Center said Thursday. 

LOOKING BACK AT THE 2025 HURRICANE SEASON

During La Niña years, the Atlantic tends to beryllium hyperactive, generating connected mean astir 14 storms and 7 hurricanes.

Conversely, during El Niño years, those averages typically driblet to astir 10 storms and 5 hurricanes.

The FOX Forecast Center noted that highly lukewarm h2o temperatures successful the Atlantic could offset El Niño's suppressive effects connected tropical development.

BRYAN NORCROSS: REFLECTING ON HURRICANE SEASON 2025

FILE - Hurricane Hunters alert into Hurricane Melissa

(NOAA)

This displacement towards El Niño follows the anemic La Niña signifier that dominated the 2025 season, which yielded nary U.S. landfalling hurricanes but 3 large (Category 3+) hurricanes — including Category 5 Melissa, which devastated Jamaica.

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross noted astatine the extremity of the 2025 play that portion seasonal forecasts tin beryllium close successful wide strokes, the day-to-day upwind signifier is the determining origin successful the enactment and steering of immoderate tropical system.